Papale Market Pep Talk

What goes up must come down.  Unless you are the stock market these days.  I can count on my two ring fingers the number of down days we have had in the last month.  What goes up will eventually come down.  It just may take a while.  Especially when the Fed keeps filling the market with $45b worth of helium each month.

My phone and email box has been rather busy these days with traders and students wondering how we deal with this market.  Market neutral strategies are based on a statistical expectation of markets staying within a range within a given time.  However on occasion markets do get stretched and momentum and other factors can push them outside of expected ranges.  While we can analyze and try to figure out why it is happening and why it should move back in the other direction, our priority is to manage risk and make sure we preserve capital.

There is an old saying, the markets can remain irrational (and I’m not saying that is where we are now) longer than a trader can remain solvent.  I have seen many traders stay true to their market convictions and stay in positions until they were margined out by their clearing firm and put out of business.  The type of market we’re in is no fun for the market neutral trader.  Stay with your risk management and don’t be afraid to take a loss.  Implement a sound strategy and discipline and over time you will weather these times and be profitable.

The Prepared Mind 5.20.2013

“And the beat goes on.” — Sonny and Cher

The beat does continue to go on and the drums are telling us it is a bull market.  How long has it taken for this to be beaten into our collective brains? Good economic news and increasing consumer confidence led to a new round of record highs in the equities.  On Thursday background noise about the possibility of the Fed discontinuing quantitative easy resulted in a 1% sell-off in the leading equity indexes.  The week finished very strongly on Friday with the Conference Board Leading Indicators and the University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Index hitting multi-year highs.   Market pundits are talking about bears throwing in the towel.  The talk on financial media outlets discussed Dow 16.000, SPX 1,700, and RUR 1,000.  The largest rallies in individual stocks are the result of traders covering short interest in specific stocks.  There was a near absence of the omnipresent “fearcasting”.  Are we starting to see the glimmer of euphoria indicating the last leg of the bull market?

None of the individual equity indexes can be singled out as the star performer for the week.  All of them showed similar gains ranging from 1.5% to 2.0%..   The RUT reflected the focus on small caps by gaining 2.04% – up 19.84 points to close at 994.01.  The Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) closed at 15,354.40 gaining 1.56% or 235.91 points.  The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 1,666.12 – up 32.42 points or a gain of 2.04%.  The S&P 100 (OEX) closed at 746.75 – gaining 1.90% or 13.90 points..  The VIX and the other volatility indexes were down slightly for the week.  It appears the different volatility indexes have found a short-term support level.  These levels reflect the current lack of concern about downside risk.  The VIX closed last week at 12.45 – a loss of 0..14 – a weekly loss of 1.11%.  The other volatility measurements showed similar moves of minimal magnitude.  Here is a capsule view of last week’s market numbers:

Index

Close

Weekly Change

% Weekly

% YTD

Volatility of  Index

Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA)

15,354.40

235.91

1.56%

17.17%

11.45% (VXD)

S&P 500 (SPX)

1,666.12

32.42

1.98%

16.82%

12.45% (VIX)

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

3,028.96

47.94

1.61%

13.83%

13.30% (VXN)

Russell 2000 (RUT)

994.01

19.84

2.04%

16.75%

15.94% (RVX)

S&P 100 (OEX)

746.75

13.90

1.90%

15.49%

12.24%(VXO)

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

12.45

-0.14

-1.11%

NA

 

 

 

Be prepared for the long Memorial Day weekend.  Wednesday is the big day for the week.   The absence of any significant earnings announcements switches the focus to Ben Bernanke’s congressional update about the economy on Wednesday.  The release of the minutes from the last
Fed meeting will be parsed for direction about the continuation of Fed financial  easing.   In addition, the Bank of Japan will make an announcement on future monetary policy.   The emphasis of the week’s economic reports will be housing.  The Dallas and Kansas City Feds will be releasing surveys on the state of manufacturing in their areas.  .

A number of stocks will be going ex dividend this week.  You must be aware of the dividend ex dates for the stocks you trade.  Any strategy with short in-the-money calls should be examined closely to assess the potential of early assignment of short calls.  Ignorance of the dividend dates may result in creating a taxable event if long stock positions are inadvertently closed, margin or capitals calls to cover short stock positions, or a short position in accounts not approved for these types of positions.  Some examples of the strategies include covered writes, call butterflies, call vertical credit spreads , and call calendars.  Be aware of the earnings date for any equities you trade.   I have scanned stocks with upcoming earnings using the following criteria:  Price > 20, 30 Day Implied Volatility > 20, and Average Daily Option Volume > 200 contracts.  It is your responsibility to confirm the earnings dates. Continue to be wary of trading any products where there is not adequate liquidity and narrow enough markets.  You should be aware of daily volume and open interest in any products you trade.   I am including a consensus earnings estimate for each stock.  Stick with your plan.    Remain disciplined.  Remain on top of market news and movers.  Singles and Doulbe – home runs are not needed.

Remember:

  “Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

This week’s economic news (All times are Eastern Daylight Time.) Events, dates and times are subject to change:

Monday May 20:  

Economic:  Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30.

Other:  Markets closed in Canada, Austria, and Switzerland,

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol Company Name

May 17 close

IV30 B/A XEPS
QIHU Qihoo 360 Technology Co., Ltd.

$40.80

57.0

B

$0.02

URBN Urban Outfitters Inc.

$43.64

35.8

A

$0.29

 

Tuesday May 21:

Economic:   ICSC-Goldman Sachs Retail Sales – 8:30,  Redbook – 8:55.

OtherGermany PPI, UK CPI and PPI.

Optionable Earnings:  

Symbol Company Name

May 17 close

IV30 B/A XEPS
AZO AutoZone Inc.

$413.50

24.7

B

$7.22

BBY Best Buy Co. Inc.

$25.90

59.8

B

$0.25

DKS Dicks Sporting Goods Inc.

$52.35

30.6

B

$0.48

MNRO Monro Muffler Brake Inc.

$44.49

33.6

B

$0.25

RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.

$49.22

46.9

B

$0.65

TDW Tidewater Inc.

$56.80

29.0

B

$0.61

TJX TJX Companies Inc.

$50.76

21.0

B

$0.52

ADI Analog Devices Inc.

$46.50

20.3

A

$0.52

INTU Intuit Inc.

$59.85

24.7

A

$2.85

NTAP Network Appliance Inc.

$38.46

37.2

A

$0.54

 

Wednesday May 22:

Economic:  MBA Purchase Applications – 7:00, April Existing Home Sales – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

Other:  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify on the outlook for the U.S. economy before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress – 10:00, FOMC minutes – 2:00.  Bank of Japan issues interest-rate decision

Optionable Earnings: 

Symbol Company Name

May 17 close

IV30 B/A XEPS
LOW Lowes Companies Inc.

$42.76

28.5

B

$0.51

TOL Toll Brothers Inc.

$36.13

33.2

B

$0.07

GES Guess? Inc.

$29.69

41.9

A

$0.08

HPQ Hewlett-Packard Co.

$21.36

42.9

A

$0.85

LTD L Brands, Inc.

$50.49

26.7

A

$0.16

PETM Petsmart Inc.

$69.18

29.2

A

$0.95

SMTC Semtech Corp.

$36.28

31.4

A

$0.38

WDAY Workday, Inc.

$67.21

44.8

A

($0.23)

 

 

Thursday May 23:

Economic:  Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index Flash – 8:58, FHFA House Price Index – 9:00, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, April New Home Sales- 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index – 11:00..

Other:  UK GDP, China Flash Manufacturing PMI.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol Company Name

May 17 close

IV30 B/A XEPS
AAP Advance Auto Parts Inc.

$85.42

27.4

B

$1.61

ALKS Alkermes Inc.

$30.33

48.2

B

$0.18

DLTR Dollar Tree Stores Inc.

$49.75

28.6

B

$0.57

GME GameStop Corp.

$38.05

48.7

B

$0.40

RL Polo Ralph Lauren Corp.

$184.80

29.6

B

$1.30

ROST Ross Stores Inc.

$64.88

25.2

B

$1.07

SHLD Sears Holdings Corporation

$57.54

53.6

B  
PLCE The Childrens Place Retail Stores Inc.

$50.22

38.7

B

$0.62

GPS Gap Inc.

$40.59

30.5

A

$0.69

CRM Salesforce.com

$46.15

38.8

A

($0.01)

WSM Williams-Sonoma Inc.

$55.11

31.3

A

$0.36

 

 

 

 

Friday May24:

Economic:  April Durable Goods Orders – 8:30, University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment – 9:55, Leading Indicators – 10:00.

Other:   Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota on panel on monetary policy and financial regulation at the University of Chicago Booth School – 1:45

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol Company Name

May 17 close

IV30 B/A XEPS
ANF Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

$53.32

48.0

B

($0.05)

FL Foot Locker Inc.

$36.40

28.7

B

$0.87

 

 

Monday May 27:

Memorial Day – All U.S. Markets Closed

 

Tuesday May 28:

Economic:  S&P Case-Shill Home Price Index – 9:00, Consumer Board Consumer Confidence -10:00, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index – 10:00, State Street Investor Confidence  Index – 10:00, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30.

Other:   

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol Company Name

May 17 close

IV30 B/A XEPS
SDRL Seadrill Limited

$39.90

25.3

B

$0.61

TIF Tiffany & Co.

$76.49

29.4

B

$0.53

CPRT Copart Inc.

$36.68

46.3

A

$0.50

ENS EnerSys

$48.78

28.7

A

$0.78

PVH Phillips-Van Heusen Corp.

$118.04

27.2

A

$1.37

 

The Prepared Mind 5.13.2013

The upward trend continues. The S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) set multiple record closes and intraday trading highs.  These markets are confounding the professionals.  A leading technical analyst at one of the major investment banks told me “This market is on crack.”  When I pressed him for more a more detailed analysis he repeated his blunt statement.  The message I carried away from this encounter is that, like crack addicted individual, this market cannot be trusted.  The financial media is very focused on the possibilities of the equity markets.

The headlines in the week’s BARRON’S give us a hint of the confusion afflicting observers of and participants in the financial markets.  Here is a partial list:  “Searching for Signs of a Market Top”, “How to Protect Your Winnings”, “New Leaders Drive the Bull’s Charge”, “Record Dow:  Where’s the Euphoria? We don’t see it yet”, and “The Stock Market is losing its Base of Support”.  Other media outlets are publishing articles with similar and sometimes conflicting sentiments. At times I am reminded by the mantra of one of the best traders I have ever known, “What is the market going to do? It’s going to break as many hearts as possible in the shortest possible time.”  Be wary.

This week’s star performer for the week was the Russell 2000 (RUT).   The RUT reflected the past week’s decision to make small caps the flavor of the week by gaining 2.26% – up 21.49 points to close at 974.17.  The Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) closed at above 15,000 by closing at 15,118.49 gaining 0.97% or 144.53 points.  The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 1,633.70 – up 19.28 points or a gain of 1.19%.  The S&P 100 (OEX) closed at 732.85 – gaining 0.99% or 7.20 points..  The VIX and the other volatility indexes were down for the week.  These levels reflect the current lack of concern about downside risk.  The VIX closed last week at 12.59 – a loss  of 0.26 – a weekly loss of 2.02%.  The other volatility measurements showed equal or greater losses.  Here is a capsule view of last week’s market numbers:

Index

Close

Weekly Change

% Weekly

% YTD

Volatility of  Index

Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA)

15,118.49

144.53

0.97%

15.37%

11.64% (VXD)

S&P 500 (SPX)

1,633.70

19.28

1.19%

14.55%

12.59% (VIX)

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

2,981.02

36.43

1.24%

12.03%

14.34% (VXN)

Russell 2000 (RUT)

974.17

21.49

2.26%

14.42%

17.82% (RVX)

S&P 100 (OEX)

732.85

7.20

0.99%

13.34%

11.63%(VXO)

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

12.59

-0.26

-2.02%

NA

This earnings cycle has ended.  The emphasis switches to a plethora of economic news this week.  Major reports include:   April Retail Sales, March Business Inventories, April Import Prices, April PPI, April Industrial Production April Capacity Utilization, April CPI, April Housing Starts, May Philadelphia Fed Survey and the April Leading Indicators.  The markets are anxiously awaiting the PPI and CPI numbers. “Speechifying” by members of the Federal Reserve Board will continue this week.  Expect a continuation of parsing of their words by the financial talking heads. These speeches will be closely examined in an attempt to predict future Fed behavior.

 

You must be aware of the dividend ex dates for the stocks you trade.  Any option with short in-the-money calls should be examined closely to assess the potential of early assignment of short calls.  Some examples of the stragies include call butterflies, call vertical credit spreads , and call calendars.  Also be aware of the earnings date for any equities you trade.   I have scanned stocks with upcoming earnings using the following criteria:  Price > 20, 30 Day Implied Volatility > 20, and Average Daily Option Volume > 200 contracts.  It is your responsibility to confirm the earnings dates. Continue to be wary of trading any products where there is not adequate liquidity and narrow enough markets.  You should be aware of daily volume and open interest in any products you trade.   I am including a consensus earnings estimate for each stock.  Stick with your plan.    Remain disciplined.  Remain on top of market news and movers.  Do not chase profits and disregard risk.

Remember:

  “Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

This week’s economic news (All times are Eastern Daylight Time.) Events, dates and times are subject to change:

Monday May 13:  

Economic:  Retail Sales – 8:30, Business Inventories – 10:00. Ameritrade IMX – 12:30.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

May 10 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

SSYS Stratasys Inc.

$82.20

51.7

B

($0.16)

CPA Copa Holdings SA

$129.20

27.6

A

$2.31

DDS Dillard’s Inc.

$86.15

30.7

A

$2.04

IOC Interoil Corp.

$73.56

75.6

A

($0.13)

NTI Northern Tier Energy LP

$25.94

50.7

A

$1.14

POST Posts Holings, Inc.

$45.64

25.2

A

$0.27

SCTY Solarcity Corporation

$26.47

88.7

A

($0.36)

 

Tuesday May 14:

Economic:   NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – 7:30, ICSC-Goldman Sachs Retail Sales – 8:30,  , Import and Index Prices – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55.

OtherPhiladelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser speech on the economic outlook to SNS in Stockholm – 2:00 AM.

Optionable Earnings:  

Symbol

Company Name

May 10 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

A Agilent Technologies Inc.

$43.16

31.0

A

$0.67

VIPS Vipshop Holdings Limited

$33.76

80.7

A

$0.00

EXP Eagle Materials Inc.

$70.73

37.2

A

$0.40

 

Wednesday May 15:

Economic:  MBA Purchase Applications – 7:00, Producer Price Index (PPI) – 8:30, Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30, Treasury International Capital – 9:00, Industrial Production – 9:15, Housing Market Index – 10:00, E-Commerce Retail Sales – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

Other:

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

May 10 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

CSC Computer Sciences Corp.

$48.83

37.1

B

$0.97

DE Deere & Co.

$92.19

22.0

B

$2.74

M Macy’s Inc.

$46.45

24.7

B

$0.53

CSCO Cisco Systems Inc.

$20.83

25.9

A

$0.45

JACK Jack in the Box Inc

$37.17

26.7

A

$0.31

NTES Netease.com Inc.

$58.57

36.3

A

$1.17

 

Thursday May 16:

Economic:  Consumer Price Index (CPI) – 8:30, Housing Starts – 8:30. Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, Philadelphia Fed Survey – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30.

Other:  Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser speech on the economic outlook in Milan – 3:45 AM,  Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren speech on the impact of austerity on monetary policy, in Milan – 7:45,   Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher speech on monetary policy at NABE energy conference in Houston, Texas – 9:00,  Federal Reserve Bank Gov. Sarah Bloom Raskin speech on prospects for recovery to National Economists Club in Washington – 12:30,   San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speech on the economy in Portland, Oregon – 2:30.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

May 10 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

ALKS Alkermes Inc.

$29.91

48.0

B

$0.18

FLO Flowers Foods Inc.

$32.42

28.7

B

$0.41

KSS Kohl’s Corp.

$48.21

28.1

B

$0.59

ADSK Autodesk Inc.

$39.75

34.2

A

$0.35

JWN Nordstrom Inc.

$58.49

21.4

A

$0.76

SINA Sina Corp.

$57.54

46.0

A

($0.11)

VSAT ViaSat Inc.

$56.52

42.9

A

($0.17)

 

 

 

 

Friday May17:

Economic:  University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment – 9:55, Leading Indicators – 10:00.

Other:   Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota on panel on monetary policy and financial regulation at the University of Chicago Booth School – 1:45

Optionable Earnings: None meeting criteria

 

 

Monday May 20:

Economic:  TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

May 10 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

MBT Mobile Telesystems OJSC

$20.26

24.6

B

 
QIHU Qihoo 360 Technology Co., Ltd.

$38.88

51.7

B

$0.02

URBN Urban Outfitters Inc.

$43.39

33.8

A

$0.29

 

 

 

Papale on Strike Selection

Today I write from the dust and noise of a house under renovation.  We are doing some work in the kitchen and family room and I need to be around to accept delivery of some cabinets.  So as I write please excuse the dust and noise.

One of the topics that generates a lot of conversation among option traders is how we pick our strikes for a particular trade.  There are lots of reasons for why a particular strike may be selected in any given trade.  A directional or technical trader may choose strikes based on a support or resistance line.  For example he might place a short call just under a resistance point expecting the market to sell off when it reaches that price level.  Volatility traders might adjust their strike placement based on what the level of implied volatility is and how much vega they want to be long or short.  As we know, the option closest to the at the money strike generally has the greatest impact on the greeks.  Want to be long vega?  Buy the at the money at sell something farther away.  Remember though as markets move and new at the money strikes get established, vega and all greeks change.  There is no right or wrong when it comes to selection of strikes.  As in most trades it comes down to risk versus reward.  Know your expectation before placing the trade and then structure accordingly.  And don’t forget to manage risk.

(Steve will present more information on this topic this Monday at 1:00pm CST in the Mentor Webinar Series. . Go to http://www.optionvue.com for more information listed on the homepage.)

The Prepared Mind 5.6.2013

The upward trend continues. Last week the markets professed their love for the FOMC by echoing Jackie Wilson’s soul-stirrer, “(Your Love Keeps Lifting Me) Higher And Higher.”  The bull market in stocks and bonds continued on Friday’s stronger than expected April jobs report.  The private sector added 165,000 jobs and unemployment fell to 7.5% from 7.6%.  The current unemployment rate is the lowest since the 4th quarter of 2008.  The equity and bond markets ignored reports showing a slowing of U.S. manufacturing growth and the biggest decline in factory orders in seven months,  The spate of new record highs continues with the markets are showing that the trend is king,  The tech sector lead the way with gains of over 5% for the week.  On Friday, two bellwether numbers held sway over trading.  The Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) traded above 15,000 and the S&P 500 (SPX) traded and closed above 1,600.  We can expect chatter from the financial media about NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 3,000 and Russell 2000 (RUT) 1,000.  A new focus is how “deflationary pressures” – lower cost of money and cost of goods – is pushing cyclical stocks to higher valuations.  The new media buzz topic is inflation, deflation and associated asset valuation.

This week’s star performer for the week was the NASDAQ 100 (NDX).   The NDX reflected the heavy weighting of the technology sector in its valuation by gaining 3.66% – up 104.04 points to close at 2,944.59.  The Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) closed at 14,973.96 gaining 1.78% or 261.41 points.  The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 1,614.42  – up 32.18 points or a gain of 2.03%.  The S&P 100 (OEX) closed at 725.65 – gaining 1.86% or 13.25 points..  The VIX and the other volatility indexes were down for the week.  These levels reflect a growing lack of concern about downside risk.  The VIX closed last week at 12.85 – a loss  of 0.76 – a weekly loss of 5.58%.  The other volatility measurements showed equal or greater losses.  Here is a capsule view of last week’s market numbers:

 

Index Close Weekly Change % Weekly % YTD Volatility of  Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA)

14,973.96

261.41

1.78%

14.27%

11.67% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX)

1,614.42

32.18

2.03%

13.20%

12.85% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

2,944.59

104.04

3.66%

10.66%

14.66% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT)

952.68

17.43

1.86%

11.89%

18.38% (RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX)

725.65

13.25

1.86%

12.22%

12.16%(VXO)
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

12.85

-0.76

-5.58%

NA

This will be a relatively quiet week for news.  A number of Federal Reserve Governors will be speaking this week.  These speeches will be closely examined in an attempt to predict future Fed behavior.  The earnings season is winding down, yet , there is still potential for market moving earnings or guidance.     Announcements Sysco, Tyson Foods, Progressive, Williams Co., Symantec, Marathon Oil, Emerson Electric, McKesson, Walt Disney, CF Industries, Monster Beverage, Green Mountain Coffee, Public Storage, NVIDIA, Apache, and Priceline.com,    The announcements can increase the prices and implied volatility of individual options. You should be aware of the earnings date for any equities you trade.   I have scanned stocks with upcoming earnings using the following criteria:  Price > 20, 30 Day Implied Volatility > 20, and Average Daily Option Volume > 200 contracts.  It is your responsibility to confirm the earnings dates. Continue to be wary of trading any products where there is not adequate liquidity and narrow enough markets.  You should be aware of daily volume and open interest in any products you trade.   I am including a consensus earnings estimate for each stock.  Stick with your plan.    Remain disciplined.  Remain on top of market news and movers.  Do not chase profits and disregard risk.

Remember:

  “Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

 This week’s economic news (All times are Eastern Daylight Time.) Events, dates and times are subject to change:

Monday May 6:

Economic:  TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

May 3 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

APO American Community Properties Trust

$26.25

39.6

B

$1.26

TSN Tyson Foods Inc.

$24.88

28.6

B

$0.46

APC Anadarko Petroleum Corp.

$84.79

31.6

A

$0.91

EOG EOG Resources Inc.

$119.67

33.1

A

$1.13

Tuesday May 7:

Economic:   ICSC-Goldman Sachs Retail Sales – 8:30,  Redbook – 8:55,

OtherFederal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein on panel on dollar funding and lending by global banks at Chicago Fed banking conference – 9:30.  SEC Chairman Mary Jo White testifies on the agency’s budget to a House committee.

Optionable Earnings:  

Symbol

Company Name

May 3 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

CRZO Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc.

$25.15

46.3

B

$0.42

CHTR Charter Communications, Inc.

$103.13

26.5

B

($0.71)

XEC Cimarex Energy Co.

$71.90

38.0

B

$1.07

CCOI Cogent Communications Group Inc.

$28.36

31.4

B

$0.01

CVLT CommVault Systems Inc.

$76.35

51.5

B

$0.22

DWRE Demandware, Inc

$27.60

49.3

B

($0.22)

DTV DirecTV Group Inc.

$57.77

26.6

B

$1.06

DISCA Discovery Holding Co.

$79.49

27.9

B

$0.66

EMR Emerson Electric Co.

$55.80

23.1

B

$0.78

ENDP Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc.

$36.95

55.2

B

$1.09

FOSL Fossil Inc.

$96.50

53.4

B

$0.97

HFC HollyFrontier Corporation.

$49.57

41.3

B

$1.77

NRGY Inergy LP

$21.97

27.2

B

$0.04

TAP Molson Coors Brewing Company

$50.42

33.2

B

$0.35

NSM Nationstar Mortgage Holdings Inc.

$37.19

54.8

B

$0.69

B NRG Energy Inc.

$27.15

25.8

B

($0.30)

PRGO Perrigo Co.

$118.61

23.5

B

$1.44

BMC BMC Software Inc.

$45.24

34.9

A

$0.74

CA CA Inc.

$27.23

28.2

A

$0.53

CHRW CH Robinson Worldwide Inc.

$59.37

35.0

A

$0.69

DVA DaVita Healthcare Partners Inc.

$117.90

28.1

A

$1.78

DGI DigitalGlobe Inc

$28.61

37.9

A

($0.36)

MRO Marathon Oil Corp.

$32.46

27.7

A

$0.72

MCK McKesson Corp.

$107.44

22.8

A

$2.29

MCEP MidCon Energy Partners LP Common Units

$23.60

27.8

A

$0.44

MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc.

$31.42

27.7

A

$0.34

MYGN Myriad Genetics Inc.

$27.61

51.8

A

$0.39

OHI Omega Healthcare Investors Inc.

$33.66

21.8

A

$0.59

ONXX Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.

$91.45

46.3

A

($0.59)

SYMC Symantec Corporation

$24.56

34.1

A

$0.33

TRIP TripAdvisor, Inc.

$53.51

57.0

A

$0.40

VCLK ValueClick Inc.

$30.78

51.9

A

$0.35

DIS Walt Disney Co.

$63.88

25.2

A

$0.77

WFM Whole Foods Market Inc.

$90.27

35.5

A

$0.73

WMB Williams Companies Inc.

$37.31

27.6

A

$0.24

WPZ Williams Partners L.P.

$49.97

25.5

A

$0.51

   

Wednesday May 8:

Economic:  MBA Purchase Applications – 7:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

Other:  Federal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein on panel on dollar funding and lending by global banks at Chicago Fed banking conference – 9:30.  Bank of England holds monetary-policy committee meeting ahead of an interest-rate decision expected Thursday.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

May 3 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

CLMT Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP

$36.69

30.8

B

$0.79

CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp.

$64.34

46.5

B

$0.92

B Lamar Advertising Co.

$48.29

45.3

B

($0.02)

MPEL Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd

$24.29

38.8

B

$0.24

SODA SodaStream International Ltd.

$52.82

58.9

B

$0.54

WMC Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation

$22.24

24.2

B

$0.93

ALDW Alon USA Partners LP

$25.35

59.8

A

$0.48

CTL Centurytel Inc.

$37.04

25.6

A

$0.69

CF CF Industries Holdings Inc.

$183.96

31.7

A

$6.08

CLR Continental Resources Inc.

$77.94

34.5

A

$1.14

CTRP Ctrip.com International Ltd.

$22.25

47.1

A

$0.10

ETE Energy Transfer Equity L.P.

$57.95

29.1

A

$0.37

GMCR Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc.

$57.35

81.5

A

$0.72

GPOR Gulfport Energy Corp.

$52.51

56.9

A

$0.14

MWE MarkWest Energy Partners LP

$61.75

25.9

A

$0.32

MED Medifast Inc.

$25.99

46.5

A

$0.34

MNST Monster Beverage Company

$55.50

47.2

A

$0.47

NWS News Corporation

$31.96

27.5

A

$0.37

NWSA News Corporation

$31.88

29.3

A

$0.37

RAX Rackspace Hosting Inc

$49.99

62.7

A

$0.21

RGP Regency Energy Partners LP

$25.03

24.1

A

$0.04

SKX Skechers USA Inc.

$21.32

47.6

A

$0.19

SPRD Spreadtrum Communications Inc.

$21.57

51.4

A

$0.38

TSLA Tesla Motors, Inc.

$54.11

77.7

A

($0.07)

RIG Transocean Inc.

$52.33

32.8

A

$0.99

TROX Tronox Ltd.

$20.34

49.1

A

($0.08)

 

Thursday May 9:

Economic:  Chain Store Sales, Jobless Claims – 8:30, Productivity and Costs – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, Wholesale Trade 10:00,  EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30.

Other:  Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker speech on ending too big to fail in New York – 10:00.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

May 3 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

ET ExactTarget, Inc.

$20.38

65.9

S

($0.14)

AGU Agrium Inc.

$89.55

29.5

B

$1.09

AMCX AMC Networks Inc.

$63.43

37.6

B

$0.81

APA Apache Corp.

$73.80

24.7

B

$2.20

BTE Baytex Energy Trust

$38.89

30.9

B

$0.29

BRY Berry Petroleum Co.

$48.30

23.6

B

$0.85

BAM Brookfield Asset Management Inc.

$38.60

22.0

B

$0.30

CTB Cooper Tire & Rubber Co.

$24.42

46.2

B

$0.67

DISH EchoStar Communications Corp.

$39.28

40.3

B

$0.08

FCN FTI Consulting Inc.

$32.07

35.8

B

$0.52

PCRX Pacira Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

$28.94

52.5

B

($0.49)

PCP Precision Castparts Corp.

$188.28

25.7

B

$2.77

SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics Inc

$32.59

74.2

B

($0.55)

WAC Walter Investment Management Corp

$33.79

54.2

B

($0.11)

AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd.

$20.85

34.7

A

$0.72

BCEI Bonanza Creek Energy, Inc.

$35.51

48.7

A

$0.42

DDS Dillard’s Inc.

$82.90

36.8

A

$2.04

MDVN Medivation Inc.

$52.98

50.7

A

($0.43)

PCLN Priceline.com Inc.

$707.95

39.8

A

$5.00

A Sotheby’s

$34.34

51.6

A

($0.12)

PANL Universal Display Corp.

$31.28

73.8

A

($0.09)

 

 

 

Friday May10:

Economic:  University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment – 9:55.

Other:  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speech at Chicago Fed banking conference – 9:30, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George speech on the economy in Jackson, Wyoming – 2:00.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

May 3 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

TRLG True Religion Apparel Inc.

$27.99

57.1

B

$0.34

SLW Silver Wheaton Corp.

$24.28

44.3

A

$0.43

 

Monday May 13:

Economic:  TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

May 3 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

SSYS Stratasys Inc.

$81.76

57.0

B

($0.16)

NTI Northern Tier Energy LP

$25.76

52.3

A

$1.08

 

 

 

 

 

Papale on Understanding Delta

Sell in May…go away.  That is the old adage.  Yesterday with the Dow down 138, it seemed we should be following those directions again this year.  Not sure exactly why that pattern holds true but market observers have been uttering that sage advice for years now.  So I will do what they say and sell in May and go away.  The Cubs that is.  Works every time.  At least the last 100 years or so.

Be careful when interpreting delta as the probability of an option or strategy finishing in the money.  While that is one correct way to think of delta, and we discuss it in our mentoring program, it does not consider the path the option may take along the way to expiration.

For example, an investor sells an out of the money put with a delta of 20.  This can be interpreted that there is a 20% likelihood that the put will end up in the money at expiration.  Sounds like a pretty safe bet.  And statistically 80% of the time those options will finish out of the money and be worthless.  However, the market tends go up and down along the way and the delta can often move around as well.  What that means is if you are managing risk during the trade you might in fact be taking losses along the way – much more than 20% in this example.  Risk management is designed to keep our losses manageable. You could be passive and let the statistics work and over time they would play out.  However the loss could potentially be so big it could put you out of business.  Recognize how probability and risk management interact and how that might affect your bottom line – and your longevity as a trader.

The Prepared Mind 4.29.2013

“Chance favors the prepared mind.”

Last week the markets continued their upward move for 2013.  Rather than soaring, they could more aptly described as ambling up last week.  The broad based indexes flirted with all-time highs before closing the week 1% to 3% higher.  Gold continued to be the volatility leader by regaining much of the losses incurred from the previous week’s record sell-off.  A software glitch on Thursday prevented trading for 3 ½ hours in the VIX and the SPX at the CBOE.  The cap on the equity markets was Friday’s announcement by the Commerce Department that real GDP grew at a 2.5% annual rate during the first quarter.   The failure to achieve the consensus estimate of 2.8% created resistance for the markets achieving even higher levels.  The financial media pundits spent the week repeating the old saying, “Sell in May and go away.”  It remains to be seen if the continued global quantitative easing will prevent a sell-off or market correction. 

The star performer for the week was the Russell 2000 (RUT).   The RUT was up 2.95%, gaining 26.77 to close at 935.25.  The Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) closed at 14,712.55 gaining a little more than 1% or 165 points.  The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 1,582.24 – up 26.99 points or a gain of 1.74%.  The NDX gained 60.09 points to close at 2,840.55 –  a gain of 2.16%.  . The S&P 100 (OEX) closed at 712.40 – gaining 1.65% or 11.58 points..  The VIX and the other volatility indexes were down for the week.  The current implied volatility levels are higher than they were the last time the indexes were at similar levels.  These levels reflect current intraday volatility and possible concern about weakness in equity indexes.   The VIX closed last week at 13.61 a loss  of 1.36 – a weekly loss of 9.08%.  The other volatility measurements showed equal or greater gains.  Here is a capsule view of last week’s market numbers:

Index

Close

Weekly Change

% Weekly

% YTD

Volatility of  Index

Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA)

14,712.55

165.04

1.13%

12.27%

12.20% (VXD)

S&P 500 (SPX)

1,582.24

26.99

1.74%

10.94%

13.61% (VIX)

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

2,840.55

60.09

2.16%

6.75%

15.48% (VXN)

Russell 2000 (RUT)

935.25

26.77

2.95%

9.85%

19.04% (RVX)

S&P 100 (OEX)

712.40

11.58

1.65%

10.17%

12.93% (VXO)

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

13.61

-1.36

-9.08%

NA

It is “Jobs Week” as the pundits like to remind us.  Expectations are that jobs will rebound from a poor March showing.  Additional focus will be on corporate earnings and the FOMC meeting.     The earnings season continues in full force this week.  These announcements include Eaton, Cummins, Marathon Petroleum, Pfizer, Visa, Time Warner, Mastercard, Comcast, Viacom. Facebook, Pjillips 66, Kraft, Estee Lauder, International Paper, AIG, Kellogg, and ADP.  The announcements can increase the prices and implied volatility of individual options. You should be aware of the earnings date for any equities you trade.   I have scanned stocks with upcoming earnings using the following criteria:  Price > 20, 30 Day Implied Volatility > 20, and Average Daily Option Volume > 200 contracts.  It is your responsibility to confirm the earnings dates. Continue to be wary of trading any products where there is not adequate liquidity and narrow enough markets.  You should be aware of daily volume and open interest in any products you trade.   I am including a consensus earnings estimate for each stock.  Stick with your plan.    Remain disciplined.  Remain on top of market news and movers.  Do not chase profits and disregard risk. 

Remember:

  “Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

This week’s economic news (All times are Eastern Daylight Time.) Events, dates and times are subject to change:

Monday April 29:

Economic:  Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30, Pending Homes Sales Index – 10:00, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30.

Other.  Japanes and Chinese markets closed.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

April 26 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

BWP

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP

$30.36

22.1

B

$0.40

CYOU

Changyou.com Limited

$29.71

46.4

B

$1.41

ETN

Eaton Corporation, PLC

$58.69

29.2

B

$0.79

HNT

Health Net Inc.

$28.28

47.4

B

$0.40

SOHU

Sohu.com Inc.

$50.30

47.5

B

$0.46

TEN

Tenneco Inc.

$37.11

42.5

B

$0.65

BWLD

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc.

$95.38

41.0

A

$0.99

ESRX

Express Scripts Inc.

$58.00

30.1

A

$0.98

HIG

Hartford Financial Services Group Inc.

$27.56

30.7

A

$0.83

HLF

Herbalife Ltd.

$37.95

64.4

A

$1.07

HTZ

Hertz Global Holdings Inc.

$23.60

43.8

A

$0.18

JEC

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc.

$52.20

31.5

A

$0.82

MAS

Masco Corp.

$20.35

40.1

A

$0.13

NEM

Newmont Mining Corp.

$34.33

36.4

A

$0.80

PCL

Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc.

$53.40

24.3

A

$0.32

SSW

Seaspan Corporation

$20.90

35.2

A

$0.23

RGR

Sturm Ruger & Co. Inc.

$49.14

43.8

A

$1.04

SU

Suncor Energy Inc.

$28.97

26.7

A

$0.75

 

Tuesday April 30:

Economic:   ICSC-Goldman Sachs Retail Sales – 8:30,  Employment Cost Index – - 8:30, Redbook – 8:55, S&P Case-Shiller HPI – 9:00, Chicago PMI – 9:45, Conference Board Consumer Confidence – 10:00, State Street Investor Confidence – 10:00.

Other:  FOMC meeting begins.  Chinese markets closed.

Optionable Earnings:  

Symbol

Company Name

April 26 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

BUD

Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc.

$96.21

24.6

D

$0.84

DDD

3D Systems Corp.

$35.12

65.5

B

$0.20

AET

Aetna Inc.

$56.88

29.0

B

$1.38

ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.

$33.18

26.6

B

$0.48

APL

Atlas Pipeline Partners LP

$36.18

26.1

B

$0.38

AVP

Avon Products Inc.

$22.35

46.1

B

$0.14

CMI

Cummins Inc.

$112.16

29.5

B

$1.85

DPZ

Dominos Pizza Inc.

$51.92

34.2

B

$0.56

ECL

Ecolab Inc.

$83.73

20.0

B

$0.59

ESV

Ensco International Inc.

$55.46

29.5

B

$1.29

BEN

Franklin Resources Inc.

$154.11

22.2

B

$2.47

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

$81.62

34.6

B

$2.14

MPLX

MPLX LP

$38.88

42.1

B

$0.27

ROC

Rockwood Holdings Inc.

$64.71

38.0

B

$0.69

THC

Tenet Healthcare Corp.

$39.87

41.5

B

$0.28

MHP

The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc.

$51.55

30.8

B

$0.74

TRW

TRW Automotive Holdings Corp.

$58.34

34.4

B

$1.46

SLCA

US Silica Holdings Inc.

$20.54

64.2

B

$0.36

VLO

Valero Energy Corp.

$41.24

37.8

B

$1.01

CAVM

Cavium Networks Inc.

$30.67

58.1

A

$0.00

ELLI

Ellie Mae, Inc.

$24.66

55.7

A

$0.18

FEIC

FEI Co.

$64.20

36.2

A

$0.65

FISV

Fiserv Inc.

$90.17

20.8

A

$1.32

IACI

IAC/InterActiveCorp

$46.76

39.7

A

$0.53

NCR

NCR Corp.

$26.72

34.0

A

$0.40

OKE

ONEOK Inc.

$51.46

24.5

A

$0.58

OKS

Oneok Partners L.P.

$54.69

22.2

A

$0.58

QCOR

Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc

$29.28

81.2

A

$0.97

SQI

SciQuest, Inc.

$22.69

48.7

A

$0.03

SM

SM Energy Company

$61.73

39.6

A

$0.55

SWI

SolarWinds Inc

$49.31

55.5

A

$0.32

FIRE

Sourcefire Inc.

$51.36

67.6

A

$0.00

HOT

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc.

$62.60

27.8

A

$0.53

TRN

Trinity Industries Inc.

$41.57

42.9

A

$0.80

ULTI

Ultimate Software Group Inc.

$93.61

36.3

A

$0.12

UNXL

Uni-Pixel Inc.

$37.55

121.3

A

$0.20

VNR

Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC

$29.00

20.4

A

$0.28

VRTX

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.

$80.32

38.9

A

($0.16)

Wednesday May 1:

Economic:  Motor Vehicle Sales, MBA Purchase Applications – 7:00, ADP Employment Report – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index – 8:58, ISM Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Construction Spending – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

Other:  FOMC meeting announcement 2:00.  Chinese markets closed.  May Day closure of markets in Brazil Hong Kongm Germany and Russia,

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

April 26 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

TS

Tenaris SA

$43.00

28.3

D

$0.73

ADT

ADT Corporation

$44.04

33.2

B

$0.43

AB

AllianceBernstein Holding L.P.

$23.01

34.6

B

$0.36

AFSI

Amtrust Financial Services Inc

$30.98

44.6

B

$0.74

CMCSA

Comcast Corp.

$40.75

20.9

B

$0.49

DLPH

Delphi Automotive PLC

$44.68

28.5

B

$0.96

DVN

Devon Energy Corp.

$53.47

28.4

B

$0.57

ENR

Energizer Holdings Inc.

$96.92

31.1

B

$1.29

GRMN

Garmin Ltd.

$35.31

38.0

B

$0.41

HSP

Hospira Inc.

$32.93

47.9

B

$0.44

HUM

Humana Inc.

$73.05

33.2

B

$1.78

ICE

InterContinental Exchange Inc.

$159.59

24.9

B

$1.98

MA

Mastercard Incorporated

$535.14

21.1

B

$6.19

PSX

Phillips 66

$61.90

36.7

B

$1.85

RDC

Rowan Companies Inc.

$32.08

33.8

B

$0.52

SBGI

Sinclair Broadcast Group Inc.

$27.44

55.9

B

$0.17

TWX

Time Warner Inc.

$59.39

22.9

B

$0.74

VIAB

Viacom Inc.

$64.49

33.7

B

$0.95

ALL

Allstate Corp.

$49.53

21.2

A

$1.22

CAR

Avis Budget Group Inc.

$28.13

53.3

A

$0.01

SAM

Boston Beer Co. Inc.

$167.64

33.9

A

$0.61

CBS

CBS Corporation

$45.97

27.0

A

$0.68

CXO

Concho Resources Inc.

$86.44

39.5

A

$0.82

CNQR

Concur Technologies Inc.

$69.65

41.1

A

($0.03)

CVRR

CVR Refining LP

$31.97

51.1

A

$1.56

EXPD

Expeditors International of Washington I

$35.44

31.3

A

$0.40

FB

Facebook, Inc.

$26.14

49.5

A

$0.08

LNC

Lincoln National Corp.

$33.66

29.3

A

$1.10

MAR

Marriott International Inc.

$41.64

24.7

A

$0.41

MET

MetLife Inc.

$38.91

28.5

A

$1.30

MUR

Murphy Oil Corp.

$61.41

26.6

A

$0.97

PCYC

Pharmacyclics, Inc.

$80.92

60.0

A

($0.08)

PXD

Pioneer Natural Resources Co.

$117.49

34.7

A

$0.97

PRU

Prudential Financial Inc.

$59.34

27.0

A

$1.89

STX

Seagate Technology

$36.54

43.3

A

$1.21

SFLY

Shutterfly Inc.

$45.97

52.3

A

($0.41)

TSO

Tesoro Corporation

$54.56

41.9

A

$0.74

V

Visa Inc.

$168.76

22.1

A

$1.81

YELP

Yelp, Inc.

$25.42

66.7

A

($0.05)

 

Thursday May2:

Economic:  Challenger Job-Cut report – 7:30, International Trade 8:30, Jobless Claims – 8:30, Productivity and Costs – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30.

Other:  ECB rate announcement expected in to be 0.25%. 

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

April 26 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

ACT

Actavis, Inc.

$98.89

21.0

B

$1.87

ARG

Airgas Inc.

$97.51

21.8

B

$1.13

BEAM

Beam Inc.

$64.20

26.0

B

$0.54

BRY

Berry Petroleum Co.

$48.56

21.1

B

$0.84

CPN

Calpine Corp.

$21.35

20.5

B

($0.04)

CAH

Cardinal Health Inc.

$44.22

21.6

B

$0.95

CTRX

Catamaran Corporation

$57.16

44.1

B

$0.41

CNP

Centerpoint Energy Inc.

$24.32

20.5

B

$0.37

CI

CIGNA Corp.

$65.72

25.9

B

$1.42

EL

Estee Lauder Companies Inc.

$68.93

38.4

B

$0.33

FNP

Fifth & Pacific Companies Inc.

$21.35

45.7

B

($0.17)

FWLT

Foster Wheeler Ltd.

$20.65

36.7

B

$0.17

GM

General Motors Corp.

$30.71

30.1

B

$0.56

GEL

Genesis Energy LP

$48.96

23.1

B

$0.33

GG

Goldcorp Inc.

$29.90

38.4

B

$0.41

HSH

Hillshire Brands Co

$35.66

29.7

B

$0.32

IP

International Paper Co.

$47.58

31.0

B

$0.74

LQDT

Liquidity Services Inc.

$35.44

61.5

B

$0.43

MMP

Magellan Midstream Partners LP

$54.18

20.1

B

$0.50

MDC

MDC Holdings Inc.

$37.02

37.9

B

$0.26

NUS

Nu Skin Enterprises Inc.

$50.66

48.9

B

$0.79

OCN

Ocwen Financial Corp.

$37.22

44.4

B

$0.71

PXP

Plains Exploration & Production Company

$44.79

27.6

B

$0.89

GOLD

Randgold Resources Ltd.

$81.29

41.6

B

$1.06

RGLD

Royal Gold Inc.

$56.01

44.2

B

$0.41

STRA

Strayer Education Inc.

$48.05

62.5

B

$1.46

VRX

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International

$73.59

39.5

B

$1.28

WNR

Western Refining Inc.

$31.65

45.1

B

$1.01

AIRM

Air Methods Corp.

$36.61

50.0

A

$0.34

AIG

American International Group Inc.

$42.28

29.5

A

$0.88

ATHN

Athenahealth Inc.

$93.08

41.1

A

$0.12

BBG

Bill Barrett Corp.

$20.30

59.3

A

$0.01

CNQ

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.

$29.58

29.1

A

$0.49

CF

CF Industries Holdings Inc.

$191.19

31.2

A

$6.08

CBI

Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. NV

$53.50

37.0

A

$0.75

DIN

DineEquity Inc

$70.70

35.4

A

$1.00

DNB

Dun & Bradstreet Corp.

$87.71

33.6

A

$1.33

ESC

Emeritus Corp.

$24.92

39.0

A

($0.56)

FSLR

First Solar Inc.

$44.47

70.4

A

$0.75

FLT

Flight Safety Technologies Inc.

$74.99

30.2

A

$0.77

FLR

Fluor Corporation

$56.63

33.6

A

$0.96

GILD

Gilead Sciences Inc.

$51.43

36.1

A

$0.47

LNKD

LinkedIn Corporation

$187.87

56.8

A

$0.05

MYL

Mylan Inc.

$29.28

21.6

A

$0.62

OPEN

Open Table, Inc.

$55.20

51.0

A

$0.29

STO

Statoil ASA

$23.65

37.6

A

$0.79

TPX

Tempur Pedic International Inc.

$48.92

56.7

A

$0.60

TDC

Teradata Corporation

$50.43

41.8

A

$0.53

THOR

Thoratec Corp.

$36.86

34.0

A

$0.40

WTW

Weight Watcher’s International Inc.

$42.08

54.8

A

$0.63

XL

XL Capital Ltd.

$31.51

23.5

A

$0.66

 

 

Friday May3:

Economic:  Employment Situation  - 8:30, Factory Orders – 10:00, ISM Non-manufacturing Index – 10:00. – 8:30, University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment – 9:55.

Other:  Japanese markets closed.  Bank of Japan releases minute of April’s policy meeting. 

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

April 26 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

CBOE

CBOE Holdings Inc.

$36.61

21.7

B

$0.47

LNG

Cheniere Energy Inc.

$27.66

42.1

B

($0.25)

CQP

Cheniere Energy Partners LP.

$27.31

26.5

B

($0.03)

MCO

Moody’s Corp.

$55.05

34.6

B

$0.86

REGN

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.

$216.75

42.1

B

$0.97

SEP

Spectra Energy Partners LP

$38.17

25.9

B

$0.48

NGLS

Targa Resources Partners LP

$46.68

25.7

B

$0.22

UPL

Ultra Petroleum Corp.

$20.97

45.1

B

$0.27

MTGE

American Capital Mortgage Investment Corp.

$25.91

20.4

A

$0.85

 

 

 

Monday May 6:

Economic:  TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30.

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

April 26 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

APO

American Community Properties Trust

$26.02

39.6

B

$1.26

BBEP

Breitburn Energy Partners LP

$20.76

22.0

B

$0.15

DISH

EchoStar Communications Corp.

$40.22

39.1

B

$0.53

TSN

Tyson Foods Inc.

$24.88

28.6

B

$0.46

APC

Anadarko Petroleum Corp.

$84.12

31.6

A

$0.91

EOG

EOG Resources Inc.

$121.86

33.1

A

$1.13

HOLX

Hologic Inc.

$20.50

39.8

A

$0.34

LGCY

Legacy Reserves Lp

$27.95

31.1

A

$0.30

PAA

Plains All American Pipeline LP

$57.50

21.4

A

$0.88

 

Papale on the Volatility Skew

Today is NFL draft day.  And if you are a rabid football fan, you are probably glued to all the sports talking heads and the over the top analysis of how selections might play out.  While I am only a casual football fan, I can’t help get a bit caught up in all this draft hype.  So for those who will be watching tonight  – have fun and good luck.  You’re on the clock.

Markets move up and markets move down.  And with those price moves, implied volatility can move as well.  But in addition to changes in IV, the skews have a tendency to change as well.  The skew is the relative price relationship between options at different strikes or months.  When we say for example that implied volatility is going down, we mean the general price level of all options are falling; i.e. the extrinsic portion of the option is declining.  However, it does not address what may be happening to the relationship between options across different strikes and months.

Implied Volatility is an average but each strike may move a bit differently.  That non uniform movement across all options creates what we call the skew.  The skew, along with implied volatility, will have an effect on the performance and profit and loss of your position at any given time.  In the equity world, in a given month, calls trade at a lower IV than puts – reflecting the embedded downside fear and demand for puts for portfolio protection.  We talk about the two things  that drive option prices and ultimately profitability – movement in underlying and implied volatility.  But when looking at IV look also at the skew.  It will provide valuable insight into your trade performance.

The Prepared Mind 4.22.2013

Cambridge Common

It was an amazing week – in the markets and personally.  I had a ringside seat for the two biggest stories of the week – the markets and the pursuit of the Boston terrorists.  I was able to watch and participate in the markets through my trading platform; the other was from the vantage point of Cambridge, Massachusetts.  I was in Cambridge on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday to teach two seminars for the Options Industry Council.  Over 100 students attended the classes despite heightened security, lengthy mass transit delays, and significant traffic jams.  All the activity on Thursday and Friday took place less than a mile from my hotel.  I have attached a picture of Cambridge Common taken at noon on Friday about two blocks from Harvard Square.  Generally there are scores of pedestrians and bike riders along with a steady stream of traffic.

Both gold and the market retreated strongly.  After being down by as much as 13% on Monday, gold futures finished the week down $105 – a 7% loss to $1,396 per ounce.  The largest sell-off in 30 years was attributed to a litany of reasons – a Goldman Sachs recommendation that clients take a short position in gold, deflationary pressures on the world economy, weak Chinese economy, slower Chinese growth, liquidation cue to trading margin calls, and a liquidation of Cyprus’ gold holdings.  The swoon was probably the result of all these and then some.  Gold is now 30% off its high while silver is down more than 50%.  The selloff in precious metals was immediately felt in the equities and equity indexes.  The broad based indexes showed losses of 2% to 3.5% for the week.  These losses are relatively modest in comparison to the gains shown by the indexes so far this year. 

After posting record intraday highs on last Friday, the S&P 500 and the DJIA were down by 1.5% on Monday when the explosions took place at the Boston Marathon.  The equity indexes showed a near immediate response by doubling their losses for the day.  After flirting with 1,600, the  S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 1,555.27 – down 33 points or a loss of 2.11%9%.  The NDX closed at 2,2,780.46 –  a loss of 76.02 or -2.66%. The S&P 100 (OEX) lost 14.56 point points to close at 700.82 – a loss of 2.04 %..  The losses for the SPX, NDX, and OEX were less than their gains for the previous week.   The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is at 14,547.51 down over 300 points to gain 2.14%  The VIX and the other volatility indexes were up very for the week.     The volatility levels reflected concern about weakness in equity indexes.    The VIX closed last week at 14.97, gain of 2.91  or a weekly gain of 24.13%.  The other volatility measurements showed equal or greater gains.  Here is a capsule view of last week’s market numbers:

Index

Close

Weekly Change

% Weekly

% YTD

Volatility of  Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA)

14,547.51

-317.55

-2.14%

11.01%

13.59% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX)

1,555.25

-33.60

-2.11%

9.05%

14.97% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

2,780.46

-76.02

-2.66%

4.49%

17.71% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT)

908.48

-32.91

-3.50%

6.70%

20.90% (RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX)

700.82

-14.56

-2.04%

8.38%

14.27% (VXO)
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

14.97

2.91

24.13%

NA

The focus will be on earnings and first quarter GDP.   The general consensus is that Friday’s announcement of GDP will show 2,8% real economic growth.   Anything less will reverberate throughout the market.   The earnings season will peak this week.  The announcements include Caterpillar, Halliburton, Apple, AT&T, DuPont, Amgen, Praxair, Boeing, Eli Lilly, Procter&Gamble, Ford, QUALCOMM, UPS, Colgate-Palmolive, Occidental Petroleum, 3M, DOW, Biogen Idec, Amazon,com, Exxon Mobil, Starbucks, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Chevron, and the Simon Property Group.  These earnings should trump all other news.  The announcements can increase the prices and implied volatility of individual options. You should be aware of the earnings date for any equities you trade.   I have scanned stocks with upcoming earnings using the following criteria:  Price > 20, 30 Day Implied Volatility > 20, and Average Daily Option Volume > 200 contracts.  It is your responsibility to confirm the earnings dates. Continue to be wary of trading any products where there is not adequate liquidity and narrow enough markets.  You should be aware of daily volume and open interest in any products you trade.   I am including a consensus earnings estimate for each stock.  Stick with your plan.    Remain disciplined.  Remain on top of market news and movers.  Do not chase profits and disregard risk. 

Remember:

  “Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

This week’s economic news (All times are Eastern Daylight Time.) Events, dates and times are subject to change:

Monday April 22:

Economic:  Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30, Existing Homes Sales – 10:00.

 Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

April 12 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

BEAV

BE Aerospace Inc.

$57.65

25.3

B

$0.80

CAT

Caterpillar Inc.

$80.46

22.9

B

$1.38

CHKP

Check Point Software Technologies

$45.41

31.5

B

$0.73

HAL

Halliburton Company

$37.71

29.4

B

$0.58

HAS

Hasbro Inc.

$44.34

23.0

B

$0.03

AMP

Ameriprise Financial Inc.

$72.18

24.2

A

$1.58

ILMN

Illumina Inc.

$56.33

33.2

A

$0.38

NFLX

Netflix Inc.

$163.82

77.0

A

$0.18

NXPI

NXP Semiconductors N.V.

$25.42

48.8

A

$0.49

TXN

Texas Instruments Inc.

$33.92

24.4

A

$0.31

VECO

Veeco Instruments Inc.

$33.28

48.1

A

$0.06

ZION

Zions Bancorp.

$23.44

29.6

A

$0.39

 

Tuesday April 23:

Economic:   ICSC-Goldman Sachs Retail Sales – 8:30,  Redbook – 8:55 , PMI Manufacturing Index Flash, FHFA House Price Index – 9:00, New Home Sales – 10:00, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index – 10:00.  

Other: 

Optionable Earnings:  

Symbol

Company Name

April 19 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

ARMH

ARM Holdings plc

$39.60

43.9

B

$0.17

AXE

Anixter International Inc.

$65.86

25.5

B

$1.36

CIT

CIT Group Inc.

$41.31

26.9

B

$0.89

COH

Coach Inc.

$51.38

40.4

B

$0.81

DD

EI DuPont de Nemours & Co.

$48.59

22.3

B

$1.54

EAT

Brinker International Inc.

$38.01

34.7

B

$0.69

FRX

Forest Laboratories Inc.

$35.44

25.9

B

$0.19

GCI

Gannett Co. Inc.

$20.10

45.4

B

$0.34

GNTX

Gentex Corp.

$20.40

34.7

B

$0.30

IR

Ingersoll-Rand Co. Ltd.

$53.54

28.4

B

$0.41

ITW

Illinois Tool Works Inc.

$60.50

20.3

B

$0.96

JCI

Johnson Controls Inc.

$32.17

26.9

B

$0.42

LXK

Lexmark International Inc.

$25.52

59.5

B

$0.86

MOLX

Molex Inc.

$26.97

33.3

B

$0.35

PCAR

Paccar Inc.

$47.38

30.8

B

$0.68

PII

Polaris Industries Inc.

$84.61

37.8

B

$1.01

R

Ryder System Inc.

$56.08

40.5

B

$0.78

TCK

Teck Cominco Ltd.

$24.52

49.3

B

$0.41

AAPL

Apple Inc.

$392.05

43.4

A

$10.23

AMGN

Amgen Inc.

$107.46

29.7

A

$1.75

AWAY

HomeAway Inc.

$31.74

53.1

A

$0.07

BRCM

Broadcom Corp.

$32.03

34.5

A

$0.35

CREE

Cree Inc.

$53.12

57.9

A

$0.25

DV

DeVry Inc.

$32.43

46.6

A

$0.83

EW

Edwards Lifesciences Corp.

$82.75

34.2

A

$0.76

NFX

Newfield Exploration Co.

$20.79

48.1

A

$0.48

NSC

Norfolk Southern Corp.

$73.86

27.2

A

$1.17

OI

Owens-Illinois Inc.

$24.26

41.0

A

$0.57

OII

Oceaneering International Inc.

$59.50

30.5

A

$0.60

PNRA

Panera Bread Co.

$179.49

34.6

A

$1.65

RKT

Rock-Tenn Co.

$86.47

37.0

A

$1.02

USNA

USANA Health Sciences Inc.

$48.41

64.1

A

$1.12

VMW

VMware Inc.

$74.39

52.2

A

$0.46

YUM

Yum! Brands Inc.

$65.00

30.1

A

$0.62

 

Wednesday April 24:

Economic:  MBA Purchase Applications – 7:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

Other:

Optionable Earnings:

Symbol

Company Name

April 19 close

IV30

B/A

XEPS

MEOH

Methanex Corp.

$37.52

35.5

D

$0.68

ABB

ABB Ltd.

$21.47

36.5

B

$0.33

AFL

AFLAC Inc.

$48.90

27.9

B

$1.63

ASH

Ashland Inc.

$84.25

32.1

B

$1.56

ATI

Allegheny Technologies Inc.

$27.35

46.1

B

$0.16

AVY

Avery Dennison Corporation

$40.13

30.5

B

$0.57

BA

Boeing Co.

$86.12

24.6

B

$1.47

CP

Canadian Pacific Railway Limited

$119.51

31.6

B

$1.22

DPS

Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc

$47.11

25.8

B

$0.47

EMC

EMC Corporation

$22.34

35.2

B

$0.31

GD

General Dynamics Corp.

$65.99

25.0

B

$1.51

GRA

WR Grace & Co.

$73.76

28.9

B

$0.80

HES

Hess Corporation

$67.02

35.4

B

$1.58

LL

Lumber Liquidators Inc

$65.86

46.8

B

$0.44

LLY

Eli Lilly & Co.

$56.29

20.4

B

$1.04

LO

Lorillard Inc

$40.87

26.6

B

$0.63

MDCO

Medicines Co.

$33.32

35.2

B

($0.14)

MSI

Motorola Solutions, Inc.

$61.15

25.7

B